Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?
This contract is priced at 14¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 14¢ bid, 15¢ ask, 1¢ spread.
Implied probability
Event outcomes
16
Family volume
$364K
Best sibling
Zohran Mamdani 4¢
Ticker
0x809eaa46…7b5c
Market snapshot
Gavin Newsom in market context.
This page tracks the Polymarket contract for Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?. The displayed quote is 14¢ from the latest venue quote. The cached market record reports 24h volume of $148. In the Who will announce Presidential run before 2027? family, this outcome ranks #4 of 16 by current quote across 16 sibling outcomes. The indicator bundle was refreshed May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC.
Outcome
Gavin Newsom
Family rank
#4 of 16
Venue
Polymarket
Current quote
14¢
Quote source
Latest venue quote
Timing
Listed until Dec 31, 2026
24h volume
$148
Family context
16 outcomes · Who will announce Presidential run before 2027?
Quote range
2¢-26¢
Family leader
Marjorie Taylor Greene 26¢
Last updated
May 9, 2026, 5:53 AM UTC · 6m ago
Venue identifier: 0x809eaa464104c09fbe8e54c582256dfa29b5061928790eea2e3d4908d96a7b5c. Family volume: $364K.
Price history
14¢ current
+1¢Orderbook snapshot
14 / 15¢
Contract terms
Resolution, venue, and identifiers.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement by the listed individual will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x809eaa46…7b5c
Event family
Who will announce Presidential run before 2027.
This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.
Total volume
$364K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Marjorie Taylor Greene 26¢
Current share
13%
Gavin Newsom
polymarket · 0x809eaa464104c09fbe8e54c582256dfa29b5061928790eea2e3d4908d96a7b5c
Zohran Mamdani
polymarket · 0x5c01405388eafd46554b6e95343eb7e37824b5ffcbf0081ed834500ddf39319f
Hunter Biden
polymarket · 0xe147f7ff06d77fa6fb5cab4ace86e5e03b37667e0e927d0fc47ed7de86e260ba
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
polymarket · 0x59a624a70bb9f3a6d182b07e6427c8c879bee9c8dac2bfb89d18cb4aefcea803
Ivanka Trump
polymarket · 0x3a4346b0618af3efcd946f27650d20cee348308bd4f8c06e62df8e9eabbe0fdb
MrBeast
polymarket · 0x152e3b6a035b597b6a7a4938f73ef9621bc84affecc51b8b889fba25bc930f9c
Erika Kirk
polymarket · 0xba4fd9a865f276504c93226ba1c94cc588d2b5d3f51c574f34c35e5dd15dcd85
Katie Britt
polymarket · 0x8780300112c6618fc8196f627198b290bf7a01694b76bbfd93927cc8fe9bdefd
Kristi Noem
polymarket · 0x2651d3103355111f3d522d027df5e0d156122e411ae1e7888fe6bb9092633530
Kamala Harris
polymarket · 0x36114d2b2f66c9929b4151607d53472fb34c6d6888238f35d72cd51f30975873
J.D. Vance
polymarket · 0x53141d6c10c6dd6166494835afba15204de77b7357fd8cd16fff3920329391f3
LeBron James
polymarket · 0xda431b7c1cb5883dd47f8c6586e2736e08a2bf6d46431a20f01cde7892ca3128
Stephen A. Smith
polymarket · 0x78305c2676796fd70d564cd59c6d884f8228d8cbd63b70bf4ee420519953db8f
Rand Paul
polymarket · 0x4b5722322fe1cc520727ee78db609d213920119c11fd6e809b36607af8d8ac64
Mike Pence
polymarket · 0xe1e8c14ce0fd88cc326e63af4006e13b98b94d376f24d5c3009021f9bca5458e
Marjorie Taylor Greene
polymarket · 0x71dcc747b514f670c9e0000c1cf963a5cd3a04aeb67400bc1c35fe19b76997bc
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.432
Observability
medium
Event type
unknown
Full indicator table
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Gavin Newsom December 2025: How California’s Governor Is Shaping the 2028 Presidential Odds
In-depth look at Gavin Newsom’s status in December 2025, his California record, and what prediction markets are signaling about his 2028 presidential chances.
Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets
Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
MCP Servers for Prediction Markets: Connect Claude Code to Kalshi and Polymarket
Connect Claude Code, Cursor, or Cline to Kalshi and Polymarket prediction markets via MCP. One-line setup, 18 tools, real-time market data for AI agents.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity
How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 14% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.