SimpleFunctions

Loretta Lynch · Who will be arrested before 2027

Loretta Lynch is priced at 11¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 10¢ bid, 11¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #7 of 16 inside Who will be arrested before 2027?.

Price history

11¢ current

1¢
10¢15¢
May 29, 2026May 29, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome

Loretta Lynch

Rank

#7 of 16

Leader

John Brennan 50¢

Range

4¢-50¢

Family volume

$116K

Identifier

0x67c568e1...6457

Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 10m ago

Implied probability

11¢
Latest venue quote
Jun 8, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 10m ago

Bid

10¢

Ask

11¢

Spread

Reported volume

$437

Family rank

#7 of 16

16 outcomes · Who will be arrested before 2027?

Closes

Family volume

$116K

Orderbook snapshot

10 / 11¢

Polymarket
1¢ spread
BidSize
100¢1.1K
10¢505
9¢356
8¢318
7¢220
6¢283
2¢250
AskSize
11¢110
12¢128
13¢73
14¢58
15¢58
16¢302
60¢5
61¢202

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Identifier

0x67c568e1…6457

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Who will be arrested before 2027.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$116K

Outcomes

16

Highest price

John Brennan 50¢

Current share

0%

OutcomePriceVolume24hDepth

John Brennan

polymarket · 0x087d55571a3847d92cab41c9aa6e05d6111dcbf2b95559627d3cf88fc53d22fe

50¢
$7K$00.3

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

polymarket · 0x293a15dc69de092ea5f669af2a0207d7b9dbf32b8e53eae53cdea7785d915747

28¢
$8K$100.5

Mahmoud Khalil

polymarket · 0x6f79a739c0694af2f9047acc2d88311911ff7def34a03b5dcc9e9e816e9e2e29

28¢
$1K$00.4

Letitia James

polymarket · 0x1b5f6d557381c9d5e5c8b9cb3aff3396c721fe6fc65c647e9d859adaa15747ce

27¢
$1K$00.5

James Clapper

polymarket · 0x44cd8b15befa5d0ce8e20dcefc25b91bf44907d6f83d148c7b600336d990085b

25¢
$3K$00.1

Tom Homan

polymarket · 0xbe555c50fc49ae7f1a970fbe13f226d179c192d87daa71c7ca082464b71fb8f6

19¢
$29K$7630.1

Brandon Johnson

polymarket · 0x950ae84dd0900bc6995ff8463c5ce8a373b7b2d8b5831b0f70896c324a97bd07

11¢
$2K$01.5

Loretta Lynch

polymarket · 0x67c568e14e9691872d6f893fe3fc1e5560d792c066357d1d54f644c26ac36457

11¢
$437$00.1

Anthony Fauci

polymarket · 0x1a975c8210f5aa11c76d645a4dd746764799310898445689b17fb500a8925c80

8¢
$8K$130.1

Hillary Clinton

polymarket · 0x862c6d9cb806315fe626d37e8b9f21585710a98ada2fb9338061574fb9a5f453

6¢
$16K$8650.2

Adam Schiff

polymarket · 0xa996ddae9ea35ff0c110e5cc04f116714ec5d4013119088f347b27920017e590

6¢
$7K$00.2

Gavin Newsom

polymarket · 0x30f0732734e61902d81cf2d3e37e531de8883b6a2c4cabd8ba3e4035977de1ed

5¢
$19K$00.4

James Comey

polymarket · 0x408877da98dbe7b36a8efdc3075057e2ae600e71f39ea96c4ff019c26eb3e05a

5¢
$9K$00.4

Pam Bondi

polymarket · 0xcecf072e20347bb9bc5325b0bf23111add4d3700513d847bb6169d795a037ad0

5¢
$2K$01.0

Barack Obama

polymarket · 0xf0f06f10ca905fa971609b18ea337047068e80e8fed592886edf1716a71fe389

4¢
$3K$00.8

Joe Biden

polymarket · 0x80689a62869f77d8bc45b306e781a026cf40280863da66e205799ed01f142868

4¢
$2K$00.3

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

CRI

8

Overround

3.0%

LAS

0.09

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

8
Overround
3.0%
LAS
0.09

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.