Who will be arrested before 2027
Leader sits at 50% across 20 bound outcomes, runner-up at 38%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
John Brennan
Outcomes
20
winner-take-all
Runner-up
38¢
Lisa Cook
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Polymarket
20 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Who will be arrested before 2027
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Hillary Clinton
0x862c6d…f453
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Tom Homan
0xbe555c…b8f6
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Lisa Cook
0x9bab81…60b4
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Anthony Fauci
0x1a975c…5c80
Who will be arrested before 2027?: José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero
0x293a15…5747
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Joe Biden
0x80689a…2868
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Mahmoud Khalil
0x6f79a7…2e29
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Loretta Lynch
0x67c568…6457
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Kash Patel
0x61cb5d…0af1
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Benjamin Netanyahu
0x47027f…562a
Who will be arrested before 2027?: James Clapper
0x44cd8b…085b
Who will be arrested before 2027?: James Comey
0x408877…e05a
Who will be arrested before 2027?: John Kerry
0x3585de…535e
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Gavin Newsom
0x30f073…e1ed
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Candace Owens
0x2a09bf…eee0
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Letitia James
0x1b5f6d…47ce
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Bill Clinton
0x19d90e…1ffa
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Susan Rice
0x0a08a2…12cd
Who will be arrested before 2027?: John Brennan
0x087d55…22fe
Who will be arrested before 2027?: Lee Jun-seok
0x0078d4…1bcb
Analysis
This market assigns a 48% probability that John Brennan will face arrest before the end of 2026, making it the leading outcome among 20 named individuals. The probability reflects uncertainty around potential legal proceedings involving the former CIA director, likely connected to ongoing investigations or litigation. Factors driving the current level include the status of any active cases, statements from prosecutors or courts, and political developments that could trigger or accelerate legal action. Resolution depends on whether formal arrest occurs before January 1, 2027—a binary outcome with less than eight months remaining. Volume on the leading contract remains modest, suggesting limited mainstream attention or confidence in the outcome.
- ›Current legal status: whether any indictments, warrants, or court filings exist against Brennan as of mid-2026
- ›Recent prosecutor or law-enforcement statements: any public indication of intent to pursue charges or make arrests
- ›Political environment: whether control of relevant agencies or administrations has shifted in ways that alter prosecution likelihood
- ›Calendar constraint: only ~225 days remain until resolution; any arrest would need to occur before year-end 2026
- ›Comparison to runner-up at 45%: the narrow margin suggests market participants view multiple outcomes as plausible rather than one as dominant
What moved the line
- Jun 1Susan Rice↑30pp8→38¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 2John Kerry↓24pp30→6¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Susan Rice↑14pp33→47¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3Mahmoud Khalil↓13pp41→28¢ · Polymarket
- Jun 3John Brennan↓12pp58→46¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Who will Trump publicly praise by May 31last 39% · 1d
- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 2d
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 2d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 2d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.