SimpleFunctions

Maria Corina Machado · Who will Trump speak to in May

Maria Corina Machado is priced at 2¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 1¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #8 of 13 inside Who will Trump speak to in May?.

Price history

2¢ current

1¢
0¢5¢
May 26, 2026May 28, 2026

Contract brief

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. If the date/time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Outcome

Maria Corina Machado

Rank

#8 of 13

Leader

Mark Rutte 21¢

Range

0¢-21¢

Family volume

$265K

Identifier

0xf79ddd64...54ca

May 28, 2026, 9:49 PM UTC · 0m ago

Implied probability

2¢
Latest venue quote
May 28, 2026, 9:49 PM UTC · 0m ago

Bid

Ask

Spread

24h volume

$654

Family rank

#8 of 13

13 outcomes · Who will Trump speak to in May?

Closes

May 31, 2026

Family volume

$265K

Orderbook snapshot

1 / 3¢

Polymarket
2¢ spread
BidSize
100¢40
100¢940
100¢488
100¢5
0¢5.1K
AskSize
3¢18
3¢53
3¢67
4¢12
4¢67
5¢19
6¢600
6¢384

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual speaks with Donald Trump between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". Speaking is defined as any verbal interaction between the listed individual and Donald Trump, occurring either in person or through verbal communication by phone or video call. The resolution source will be credible media reporting. However, in the absence of definitive or in the case of contradictory media reporting, statements by either of the specified individuals or their official representatives will also be considered. Statements by the specified individuals or their official representatives will only be considered conclusive if the claims explicitly, or in context unambiguously, indicate that a qualifying talk occurred within the specified timeframe and took place via verbal communication, and provided that such claims are not contradicted by the other specified individual, their representatives, or credible media reporting by the end of the third calendar date (ET) following the statement in question. If the date/time of a qualifying talk cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar day following this market's above-specified timeframe, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether it was later confirmed to have taken place.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

May 31, 2026

Identifier

0xf79ddd64…54ca

SF Signal
Regime
neutral

Event family

Who will Trump speak to in May.

The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.

Total volume

$265K

Outcomes

13

Highest price

Mark Rutte 21¢

Current share

4%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

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Open index

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.