What is the current probability for "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 8¢ (8% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on November 3, 2027. 558 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 869.1% and 4.9% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Who will win the governorship in California?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Who will win the governorship in California?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 8% probability that Who will win the governorship in California?. This contract trades at 8¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market prices Steve Hilton's California gubernatorial chances at just 5%, yet displays an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,226% for Yes positions, suggesting substantial mispricing or extreme confidence in the No outcome.

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8¢

Bid/Ask 7/8¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $51,665.26·OI $1,015,819.82·Closes Nov 3, 2027·558d remaining

KXGOVCA-26-SHIL

7-day price41 snapshots · 127 regime

8¢7¢ current

Apr 104¢Apr 22

Analysis

7d ago

This market prices Steve Hilton's California gubernatorial chances at just 5%, yet displays an extraordinarily high implied yield of 1,226% for Yes positions, suggesting substantial mispricing or extreme confidence in the No outcome. The 566-day timeframe provides ample runway for price discovery, but the $819k open interest against only $50.6k in 24-hour volume indicates relatively thin liquidity that could amplify volatility if significant capital enters. The 19 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime score warrant caution, as the market may experience sharp repricing closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

If Steve Hilton is elected to the governorship of California pursuant to the election in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 869.1%

IY (No) 4.9%

Adj IY 372%

CRI 13

EE 6.000

Overround -0.1%

▶ Full indicator table (7)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	869.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.9%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	372%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	13	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
EE	6.000	Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.396

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/24/2026, 3:19:43 PM

SF edge 7.0¢ yesObservability lowEvent type political

Edges (1)

NO +7¢thesis — California 2026 Governor: Steyer Overvalued, Hilton Tail Value Ignored

Has thesisHas orderbookIndicators computed 4/24/2026, 3:08:44 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVCA-26-SHIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Event Overround →