30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end above 5.25%
Above 5.25% is priced at 8¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 4¢ bid, 5¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 3 inside Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.
Price history
8¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 5.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 5.25%
Rank
#2 of 3
Leader
Above 5.20% 31¢
Range
4¢-31¢
Family volume
$156
Identifier
KXUST30-26MAY29-T5.25
May 25, 2026, 8:08 AM UTC · 10m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
5¢
Spread
1¢
Reported volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 3
3 outcomes · Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$156
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 5¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end is above 5.25%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXUST30-26MAY29-T5.25
Event family
Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$156
Outcomes
3
Highest price
Above 5.20% 31¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Odds pages
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Implied Yield (IY)
Implied yield converts a prediction market price into the same annualized return units as a treasury bill. Formula, worked example, and where IY breaks down.
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 8% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.