Will 30Y US Treasury Yield before month-end be above 5.25%

30-day trend

Analysis

This probability reflects market expectations that the 30-year US Treasury yield will exceed 5.25% at some point before May 31, 2026. The 78% probability on the slightly lower 5.20% threshold suggests traders see elevated rates as likely near-term, driven by persistent inflation concerns and Federal Reserve policy expectations. The key tension is whether rates rise further or stabilize around current levels. Treasury yields respond to inflation data, Fed communications, and broader economic data releases through month-end, with any significant economic reports potentially shifting expectations. The spread between the 78% probability at 5.20% and 58% at 5.25% indicates meaningful uncertainty about how much higher yields might climb, suggesting traders see a clear path past 5.20% but less certainty about breaching the higher threshold.

• ›The 30Y yield was trading in a range where crossing 5.25% required a notable move beyond current market expectations, but not an extreme one
• ›Monthly CPI and employment data through late May could trigger material yield shifts depending on inflation or labor market signals
• ›Federal Reserve messaging and dot-plot expectations significantly influence long-duration Treasury pricing and forward rate expectations
• ›The 52% probability at 5.30% versus 78% at 5.20% reveals a steep probability decline at higher yield levels, indicating market consensus clusters around the 5.20-5.25% band
• ›Day-to-day volatility in Treasury markets means intraday yield spikes above 5.25% are possible but sustaining that level through month-end carries distinct probability

What moved the line

• May 20Above 5.25%↑31pp19→50¢ · Kalshi
• May 20Above 5.20%↑29pp30→59¢ · Kalshi
• May 21Above 5.25%↓21pp50→29¢ · Kalshi
• May 24Above 5.20%↓20pp27→7¢ · Kalshi
• May 21Above 5.20%↓18pp59→41¢ · Kalshi

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How we compute these odds