Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027 is priced at 70¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 69¢ bid, 71¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
70¢ current
+13¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Outcome
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$600K
Identifier
0x006e3bc3...ad5b
May 27, 2026, 2:38 PM UTC · 17m ago
Implied probability
Bid
69¢
Ask
71¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$600K
Orderbook snapshot
69 / 71¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x006e3bc3…ad5b
Event family
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$600K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027 70¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.