Above 40000 jobs added in September 2026
Above 40,000 is priced at 61¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This outcome ranks #6 of 13 inside KXPAYROLLS-26SEP.
Price history
61¢ current
+18¢Contract brief
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above 40,000
Rank
#6 of 13
Leader
Above 0 83¢
Range
22¢-83¢
Family volume
$0
Identifier
KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T40000
May 25, 2026, 3:38 AM UTC · 22m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$190
Family rank
#6 of 13
13 outcomes · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP
Closes
Oct 2, 2026
Family volume
$0
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the increase in total non-farm payroll employment is above 40000 as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Employment Situation Report for the month of September 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Oct 2, 2026
Identifier
KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T40000
Event family
KXPAYROLLS-26SEP.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$0
Outcomes
13
Highest price
Above 0 83¢
Current share
—
Above 0
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T0
Above -25,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T-25000
Above 10,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T10000
Above 20,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T20000
Above 30,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T30000
Above 40,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T40000
Above 60,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T60000
Above 50,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T50000
Above 70,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T70000
Above 80,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T80000
Above 90,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T90000
Above 100,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T100000
Above 125,000
kalshi · KXPAYROLLS-26SEP-T125000
Browse this series
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.568
Observability
high
Event type
data_release
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.