Markets · Series
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast Markets — pricing the ladder, 65 thresholds.
65 live Kalshi contracts (95 audited). Median implied probability sits at 65%. Refreshed every 5 minutes.
Analytics view (term structure, fitted hazard rate, per-bucket deviations): /yield-curves/KXPAYROLLS.
/api/public/markets/series/KXPAYROLLS/api/public/yield-curves/KXPAYROLLS›example response
{
"scope": {
"type": "series",
"slug": "KXPAYROLLS",
"label": "U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast Markets"
},
"live": {
"contractCount": 65,
"volume24hSum": 1830.79,
"hasThesisCount": 0
},
"termFit": null
}Live contracts
65
Median IY
65¢
implied prob (YES)
24h volume
$1.8K
Days to catalyst
25
min daysToEvent
SF thesis coverage
0
Bucket count
65
thresholds fitted
Threshold ladder — 65 contracts at one resolution
Mean fit deviation 0.4ppBars ordered by threshold ascending. Pink = cheapest vs hazard fit; purple = richest. Solid emerald = cumulative implied probability; dashed zinc = survival; dashed amber = implied EV.
Top markets in U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Forecast Markets
Showing top 20 of 65Sortable on every numeric column. Every row carries the SF indicator stack — bounded for readability, raw value on hover.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 12 Jul 2026 12:08:42 GMT.
Term-structure analytics
Probability vs tenor curve and per-bucket deviation analysis. /yield-curves/KXPAYROLLS →
Category view
All Kalshi Economics markets. /markets/category/economics →
Venue view
Everything on Kalshi. /markets/venue/kalshi →
JSON API
Same data, machine-readable. twin endpoint →