SimpleFunctions
KalshiJul 2, 202660 days left

Will Aday Mara be a 1st Round draft pick in 2026?

This contract is priced at 99¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 64¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 36¢ spread.

Implied probability

99¢
$110 volume
$110 liquidity

Event outcomes

16

Family volume

$0

Best sibling

Darryn Peterson 79¢

Ticker

KXNBADRAFTTOP-26-R1-AMAR

Price history

99¢ current

+37¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
May 2, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

64 / 100¢

Kalshi
36¢ spread
BidSize
64¢433
60¢50
4¢4.5K
3¢45
2¢13
AskSize

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

If Aday Mara is drafted in the 1st Round in the 2026 Pro Basketball Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Jul 2, 2026

Identifier

KXNBADRAFTTOP-26-R1-AMAR

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

342.3%

IY (No)

1081.8%

Adj IY

541%

CRI

2

Overround

10.9%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

342.3%
1081.8%
Adj IY
541%
2
Overround
10.9%

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