Ala Stanford receive between 20% and 25% of the popular vote in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary
20% - 25% is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 7 inside Will Ala Stanford receive.
Price history
97¢ current
+86¢Contract brief
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 20% to 24.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
20% - 25%
Rank
#1 of 7
Leader
20% - 25% 96¢
Range
1¢-96¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-22
May 26, 2026, 1:08 PM UTC · 25m ago
Implied probability
Bid
96¢
Ask
97¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$6K
Family rank
#1 of 7
7 outcomes · Will Ala Stanford receive
Closes
May 19, 2027
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
96 / 97¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Ala Stanford in the 2026 Pennsylvania 3rd Congressional District Democratic primary is 20% to 24.99%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 19, 2027
Identifier
KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-22
Event family
Will Ala Stanford receive.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
7
Highest price
20% - 25% 96¢
Current share
100%
20% - 25%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-22
25% - 30%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-27
10% - 15%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-12
15% - 20%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-17
30% - 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-32
Below 10%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-5
At least 35%
kalshi · KXVOTEPRIMARY-PA3D26ASTAASTA-67
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 97% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.