Will Tom Steyer receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 52% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
52%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$30K
5 contracts
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
419 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 12% of their title tokens — “Will James Fishback receive at least” vs “Will Randy Feenstra receive between 35% and 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will James Fishback receive at least
Will James Fishback receive at least 20% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 20%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-60
Will James Fishback receive at least 10% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 10%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-55
Will James Fishback receive at least 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 Florida Republican Governor primary?: At least 30%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-GOVFLNOMR26JFIS-65
Cluster 2
Will Randy Feenstra receive between 35% and 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 Iowa Republican gubernatorial primary
Cluster 3
Will Connie Chan receive between 25% and 30% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-11 primary
Analysis
This reflects the probability that Tom Steyer will capture between 20% and 24% of votes in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary election. Steyer's result depends on primary field composition, voter turnout patterns, and whether other moderate or wealthy self-funding candidates enter the race. Currently, contract data suggests modest confidence in this narrow band outcome, with higher probability assigned to him finishing first outright (36 cents) versus achieving exactly this vote share. The primary election date and final candidate field are the critical uncertainties that will resolve this bet, as late-entry candidates or unexpected withdrawal could significantly shift the vote distribution among remaining candidates.
- ›Steyer's historical performance in California politics and 2020 presidential primary results provide baseline data for expected voter support
- ›The total number of candidates competing shapes whether 20-24% represents a top-two finish or mid-field outcome
- ›Voter turnout composition in the primary will affect whether Steyer's coalition mobilizes at expected rates
- ›Late candidate entries or withdrawals between now and primary day could materially shift vote share percentages
- ›Media coverage and campaign spending relative to other candidates will influence whether Steyer reaches or stays within this specific vote band
What moved the line
- Jun 22At least 10%↑12pp48→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24At least 10%↑5pp60→65¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22At least 20%↑4pp11→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20At least 10%↑4pp44→48¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23At least 20%↓3pp15→12¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in election 2026
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Other questions in election 2026.
In election 2026
Related reading
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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