Will Tom Steyer receive between 20% and 24% of the popular vote in the 2026 California gubernatorial primary
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 43% across 17 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
43%
17 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$29K
17 contracts
Closes
Aug 18, 2027
359 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 17 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Darline Graham receive at least
Will Darline Graham receive at least 53% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 53%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-53
Will Darline Graham receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 44%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-44
Will Darline Graham receive at least 47% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 47%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-47
Will Darline Graham receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 56%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-56
Will Darline Graham receive at least 59% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 59%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-59
Will Darline Graham receive at least 41% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 41%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-41
Will Darline Graham receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 50%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-50
Will Darline Graham receive at least 62% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 62%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26DGRA-62
Cluster 2
Will Ralph Norman receive at least
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 53% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 53%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26RNOR-53
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 44% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 44%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26RNOR-44
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 56% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 56%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26RNOR-56
Will Ralph Norman receive at least 47% of the popular vote in the 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate runoff?: At least 47%
KXVOTEPRIMARY-SCRSENS26RNOR-47
Cluster 3
Will Mary Peltola receive at least 50% of the popular vote in the Alaska U.S. Senate primary
Cluster 4
Will Mike Mazzei receive at least 48% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff
Cluster 5
Will Gentner Drummond receive at least 57% of the popular vote in the 2026 Oklahoma Republican gubernatorial runoff
Cluster 6
Will Aaron Baker receive at least 15% of the popular vote in the FL-06 Republican primary
Cluster 7
Will Ed Markey receive at least 60% of the popular vote in the 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate primary
Analysis
This market indicates a 41% probability that Tom Steyer will capture between 20% and 24% of votes in California's 2026 gubernatorial primary. Steyer's viability in this specific vote-share band depends on several dynamics: whether he can mobilize his existing donor network and name recognition from previous campaigns, whether other progressive candidates fragment the left-wing vote, and how effectively he campaigns across the state. The primary election scheduled for June 2026 will determine the actual outcome. Key uncertainties include whether Steyer enters the race seriously with significant spending, which other major candidates compete alongside him, and overall primary turnout patterns. His previous 2020 presidential campaign demonstrated he could reach measurable vote totals, but California gubernatorial dynamics differ substantially from national contests.
- ›Steyer's official entry status and campaign spending commitment level heading into June 2026 primary
- ›Competitive field composition and whether other wealthy self-funding candidates also compete
- ›Historical turnout and vote-splitting patterns among progressive voters in California gubernatorial primaries
- ›Steyer's campaign infrastructure and ground organization compared to competing candidates
- ›Voter name recognition and favorability trends in California from mid-2026 polling
What moved the line
- Aug 19At least 48%↑31pp37→68¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19At least 60%↑29pp16→45¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 48%↑28pp44→72¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20At least 48%↓24pp68→44¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22At least 50%↑23pp7→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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