Will Andoni Iraola cease to be manager of Bournemouth before Aug 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 95% probability that Will Andoni Iraola cease to be manager of Bournemouth before Aug 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 95¢ on Kalshi, closing August 8, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Iraola leaves Bournemouth in the next 111 days.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a wide 8¢ spread, suggesting minimal trader interest in whether Iraola leaves Bournemouth in the next 111 days. The 0¢ price implies near-zero probability of his departure, yet the implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reaches an extraordinary 49.2%, indicating the market is pricing in either very low confidence in that outcome or potential mispricing due to lack of liquidity. The high cliff risk index of 7 combined with zero trading activity suggests this contract may not resolve reliably if an actual managerial change occurs.
Resolution rules
If Andoni Iraola ceases to be the manager of Bournemouth starting Apr 16, 2026 and before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXMANAGERSOUT-26AUG01EPL-AIRA yes 100