Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2030. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.4k open interest, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $17.4k open interest, suggesting the 12¢ price may not reflect genuine consensus. The 310% implied yield on the Yes side is notably asymmetric compared to the 2.3% on the No side, indicating the market is pricing in substantial tail risk for a relatively unlikely outcome. The sharp 7-day price movement from 1¢ to 8¢ warrants caution—with no recent trading activity, this could reflect a single large order rather than meaningful conviction, and the wide spread combined with low liquidity creates significant execution risk.
Resolution rules
If Andy Burnham is the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom before Jan 1, 2030, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABUR yes 100