Will Yvette Cooper be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 22% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
22%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1306 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Ed Miliband
KXNEXTUKPM-30-EMIL
Cluster 2
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Angela Rayner
KXNEXTUKPM-30-AR
Cluster 3
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Andy Burnham
KXNEXTUKPM-30-ABUR
Cluster 4
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of United Kingdom?: Wes Streeting
KXNEXTUKPM-30-WS
Analysis
This represents the current market estimate that Yvette Cooper will become the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. At 11%, traders are pricing her as a significantly lower probability candidate compared to other potential successors. The assessment reflects factors including her current political standing within the Labour party, the timing and circumstances under which the next transition might occur, and historical patterns of UK leadership succession. The probability would move higher if she gained additional senior roles or demonstrated increased party support, or lower if other candidates consolidated backing or she faced political setbacks. The resolution of this question depends substantially on when the next Prime Ministerial transition occurs and the competitive dynamics among potential Labour successors, which remains uncertain given the current political cycle.
- ›Labour party internal positioning and whether Cooper maintains or expands her role as a potential successor to Keir Starmer
- ›Overall viability of Labour remaining in power through the next general election, which affects the pool of potential Prime Ministers
- ›Comparison to competing candidates' market probabilities and their relative backing from party members and MPs
- ›Track record and public polling of other senior Labour figures who might be considered for the role
- ›Timing of the next general election or unexpected circumstances that might trigger an earlier leadership transition
What moved the line
- May 29Ed Miliband↑5pp6→11¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 3Andy Burnham↑4pp62→66¢ · Kalshi
- May 30Ed Miliband↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 1Ed Miliband↓3pp13→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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