Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30 is priced at 4¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
4¢ current
−18¢Contract brief
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$17K
Identifier
0x152535dc...23f0
Jun 8, 2026, 6:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
3¢
Ask
4¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$29
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Family volume
$17K
Orderbook snapshot
3 / 4¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
On Friday, December 26th, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland as a sovereign state. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-recognises-somaliland-somalias-breakway-region-independent-state-2025-12-26/. This market will resolve to "Yes" if any other UN member state formally recognizes the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Only formal recognition of Somaliland will qualify. Statements/actions which acknowledge the Republic of Somaliland, or change its diplomatic status with a relevant country, but do not formally recognize the Republic of Somaliland as a sovereign state will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of a recognizing country; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
Identifier
0x152535dc…23f0
Event family
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$17K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will another country recognize Somaliland by June 30 4¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.