December 31, 2026 · Will any country leave NATO by
December 31, 2026 is priced at 6¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 6¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 0¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside Will any country leave NATO by...?.
Price history
6¢ current
−1¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Outcome
December 31, 2026
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
December 31, 2026 6¢
Range
1¢-6¢
Family volume
$867K
Identifier
0x523959b6...58e9
Jun 7, 2026, 3:08 AM UTC · 14m ago
Implied probability
Bid
6¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
0¢
24h volume
$286
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · Will any country leave NATO by...?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$867K
Orderbook snapshot
6 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x523959b6…58e9
Event family
Will any country leave NATO by.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$867K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
December 31, 2026 6¢
Current share
19%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.341
Observability
low
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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