Will any country leave NATO by...
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
6%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$32
1 contracts
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
207 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will any country leave NATO by
Will any country leave NATO by...?: December 31, 2026
0x523959…58e9
Analysis
This probability estimates the chance that at least one NATO member country will withdraw from the alliance by a specified date. The 13% aggregate reflects significant uncertainty, with notable disagreement between venues: Kalshi prices in substantially higher withdrawal risk (24%) compared to Polymarket (9%). The gap likely reflects differing assessments of US political developments, particularly around potential policy shifts toward NATO commitments. Factors pushing probability upward include geopolitical tensions, domestic political changes in member states, and shifts in alliance burden-sharing debates. Factors pushing downward include institutional inertia, economic interdependence, and the high costs of NATO exit. The most immediate driver is US election and policy outcomes, given that a US withdrawal would constitute the likeliest scenario priced into these contracts.
- ›US domestic political positions on NATO funding and alliance commitments will directly shape withdrawal likelihood given America's outsized role
- ›Kalshi-Polymarket divergence (15 percentage points) suggests traders weight geopolitical risks and political change probabilities differently across platforms
- ›Polymarket contracts show lowest probabilities on near-term US withdrawal (3-12¢ for mid-2026), indicating markets view full exit as unlikely within 18 months
- ›Historical NATO membership has shown high persistence despite periodic political friction and burden-sharing disputes
- ›Specific triggering events (major military conflict, allied security guarantee withdrawal, formal treaty revision) rather than gradual drift would most likely precipitate withdrawal
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (6% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In ukraine
Related reading
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The probability of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by December 31 fell 4 cents to 47%, while the 'peace deal before 2027' contract edged up 1 cent to 29%. This divergence suggests traders see a ceasefire as less likely near-term, but are not giving up on a longer-term peace process. Russia's capture of key towns is also being priced.
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The probability of Russia capturing all of Hryshyne by May 31 jumped 59¢ to 83¢, signaling a major battlefield gain. This has knock-on effects for Ukraine peace deal markets and oil supply concerns from potential disruptions in the Black Sea.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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