SimpleFunctions

Ariana Grande · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Ariana Grande is priced at 97¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 96¢ bid, 97¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 16 inside KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

Price history

97¢ current

+27¢
75¢100¢
Apr 28, 2026May 27, 2026

Contract brief

If Ariana Grande has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

Ariana Grande

Rank

#1 of 16

Leader

Ariana Grande 96¢

Range

1¢-96¢

Family volume

$3K

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ARI

May 27, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 5m ago

Implied probability

97¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 7:38 PM UTC · 5m ago

Bid

96¢

Ask

97¢

Spread

24h volume

$250

Family rank

#1 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Family volume

$3K

Orderbook snapshot

96 / 97¢

Kalshi
1¢ spread
BidSize
96¢32
93¢14
92¢111
89¢276
88¢1.0K
AskSize
97¢2.2K
98¢1.5K
99¢1.4K

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If Ariana Grande has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-ARI

SF Signal
SF Index
4062.48
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

7.1%

IY (No)

4105.2%

Adj IY

4062%

CRI

24

RV

104%

VR

3.69

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

7.1%
4105.2%
Adj IY
4062%
24
RV
104%
VR
3.69
IAR
0.7/h
Overround
12.7%
LAS
0.01

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.