SimpleFunctions

SZA · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

SZA is priced at 30¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 30¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 13¢ spread. This outcome ranks #9 of 16 inside KX1ALBUM-26DEC.

Price history

30¢ current

12¢
0¢25¢50¢
Apr 28, 2026May 26, 2026

Contract brief

If SZA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Outcome

SZA

Rank

#9 of 16

Leader

Olivia Rodrigo 96¢

Range

1¢-96¢

Family volume

$3K

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-SZA

May 27, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 16m ago

Implied probability

30¢
Latest venue quote
May 27, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 16m ago

Bid

30¢

Ask

43¢

Spread

13¢

24h volume

$10

Family rank

#9 of 16

16 outcomes · KX1ALBUM-26DEC

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Family volume

$3K

Orderbook snapshot

30 / 43¢

Kalshi
13¢ spread
BidSize
100¢550
30¢501
3¢251
2¢4.7K
AskSize
45¢32
46¢500
51¢13
73¢48

Contract terms

What resolves this market.

YES condition

If SZA has a #1 album on the Billboard 200 by Dec 26, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Venue

Kalshi

Closes

Dec 27, 2026

Identifier

KX1ALBUM-26DEC-SZA

SF Signal
SF Index
112.99
Regime
neutral

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

398.8%

IY (No)

73.2%

Adj IY

113%

CRI

2

Overround

12.7%

LAS

0.43

Regime

neutral

Score

0.5

Full indicator table

398.8%
73.2%
Adj IY
113%
2
Overround
12.7%
LAS
0.43

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.