Australia balance of trade for April 2026 above -5.0B AUD
Above -5.0B AUD is priced at 88¢ midpoint on Kalshi. Current book: 85¢ bid, 91¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 15 inside Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above.
Price history
88¢ current
+85¢Contract brief
If Australia balance of trade for April 2026 is above -5,000,000,000 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Above -5.0B AUD
Rank
#4 of 15
Leader
Above -6.5B AUD 94¢
Range
41¢-94¢
Family volume
$1
Identifier
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-5.0
May 24, 2026, 3:08 PM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
85¢
Ask
91¢
Spread
6¢
Reported volume
$0
Family rank
#4 of 15
15 outcomes · Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
Family volume
$1
Orderbook snapshot
85 / 91¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Australia balance of trade for April 2026 is above -5,000,000,000 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
Identifier
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-5.0
Event family
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$1
Outcomes
15
Highest price
Above -6.5B AUD 94¢
Current share
0%
Above -6.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-6.5
Above -6.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-6.0
Above -5.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-5.5
Above -5.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-5.0
Above -4.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-4.5
Above -4.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-4.0
Above -3.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-3.5
Above -3.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-3.0
Above -2.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-2.5
Above -2.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-2.0
Above -1.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-1.5
Above -1.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-1.0
Above -0.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-0.5
Above 0.0B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T0.0
Above 0.5B AUD
kalshi · KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T0.5
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 88% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.