Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -1.5B AUD
Leader sits at 94% across 15 bound outcomes, runner-up at 91%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above -6.5B AUD
Outcomes
15
winner-take-all
Runner-up
91¢
Above -6.0B AUD
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$2
thin orderbook
Closes
Jun 4, 2026
7 days
Venue
Kalshi
15 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -5.5B AUD?: Above -5.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-5.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above 0.5B AUD?: Above 0.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T0.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above 0.0B AUD?: Above 0.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T0.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -6.5B AUD?: Above -6.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-6.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -6.0B AUD?: Above -6.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-6.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -5.0B AUD?: Above -5.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-5.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -4.5B AUD?: Above -4.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-4.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -4.0B AUD?: Above -4.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-4.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -3.5B AUD?: Above -3.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-3.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -3.0B AUD?: Above -3.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-3.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -2.5B AUD?: Above -2.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-2.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -2.0B AUD?: Above -2.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-2.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -1.5B AUD?: Above -1.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-1.5
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -1.0B AUD?: Above -1.0B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-1.0
Will Australia balance of trade for April 2026 be above -0.5B AUD?: Above -0.5B AUD
KXAUTRADEBAL-26JUN03-T-0.5
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Australia's April 2026 trade balance deficit will exceed -1.5 billion AUD, currently priced at 94% on prediction markets. Australia's trade position depends primarily on export volumes (commodities, agricultural products) relative to import demand, both sensitive to global economic conditions and commodity prices. The April trade data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics, scheduled for June 2026, will definitively resolve this outcome. Current elevated probability suggests markets anticipate either a modest deficit or potential surplus given Australia's strong export sectors, though significant commodity price declines or domestic demand shocks could worsen the trade position. The spread across related contracts (ranging from 50¢ to 69¢) indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether the deficit will be larger or smaller than -1.5B AUD, even if most traders expect it to stay above that threshold.
- ›Commodity export prices (iron ore, coal, LNG) in April 2026 relative to historical ranges, as these drive Australia's export revenue
- ›Global import demand from major trading partners (China, India, Japan, South Korea) which influences Australian export volumes and pricing
- ›Domestic import levels driven by domestic demand, supply chain conditions, and business investment cycles in the Australian economy
- ›AUD exchange rate movements against trading partner currencies, which affect the AUD value of Australian exports and imports
- ›Official April 2026 trade balance data release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics in June 2026, which will settle the market outcome
What moved the line
- May 22Above -4.5B AUD↑66pp16→82¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above -4.0B AUD↑64pp16→80¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above -3.0B AUD↑60pp15→75¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above -3.5B AUD↑60pp17→77¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Above -2.5B AUD↑57pp14→71¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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