Will average **gas prices** be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 27% probability that Will average **gas prices** be above $6.20 by Dec 31, 2026?. This contract trades at 27¢ on Kalshi, closing December 31, 2026. The market is pricing in only an 8% chance of average US gas prices exceeding $6.20 by year-end 2026, despite the extreme 2685.5% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-reward skew that suggests either severe illiquidity or genuine conviction that this outcome is highly unlikely.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only an 8% chance of average US gas prices exceeding $6.20 by year-end 2026, despite the extreme 2685.5% implied yield on the Yes side—a massive risk-reward skew that suggests either severe illiquidity or genuine conviction that this outcome is highly unlikely. The dramatic 7-day price collapse from 43¢ to 5¢ indicates recent selling pressure, and with only $100 in 24-hour volume against $161.46 open interest, the 9¢ spread reflects thin liquidity that could amplify volatility if new information emerges. The Cliff Risk Index of 19 is moderately elevated, suggesting meaningful tail risk around the resolution date, though current market consensus heavily favors prices remaining below $6.20 over the next 258 days.
Resolution rules
If AAA reports that the maximum price of national average regular gas for the US is greater than $6.20 at any time from Issuance through Dec 31, 2026, inclusive, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXAAAGASMAX-26DEC31-6.20 yes 100