Average gas prices above or below $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026
Below $2.80 is priced at 10¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 5¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 9¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 5 inside Will average gas prices be above or below $2.
Price history
10¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly lower than $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Below $2.80
Rank
#1 of 5
Leader
Below $2.80 5¢
Range
1¢-5¢
Family volume
$186
Identifier
KXAAAGASMINNY-26DEC31-2.80
May 24, 2026, 3:38 PM UTC · 27m ago
Implied probability
Bid
5¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
9¢
24h volume
$100
Family rank
#1 of 5
5 outcomes · Will average gas prices be above or below $2
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$186
Orderbook snapshot
5 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If average regular gas prices for New York are strictly lower than $2.80 by Dec 31, 2026 according to AAA, the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
KXAAAGASMINNY-26DEC31-2.80
Event family
Will average gas prices be above or below $2.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$186
Outcomes
5
Highest price
Below $2.80 5¢
Current share
54%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.412
Observability
low
Event type
financial
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.