Brad Lander · KXNY10D-26
Brad Lander is priced at 93¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 90¢ bid, 92¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 2 inside KXNY10D-26.
Price history
93¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
If Brad Lander wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-10 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Brad Lander
Rank
#1 of 2
Leader
Brad Lander 90¢
Range
6¢-90¢
Family volume
$3K
Identifier
KXNY10D-26-BLAN
May 27, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
90¢
Ask
92¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$2K
Family rank
#1 of 2
2 outcomes · KXNY10D-26
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Family volume
$3K
Orderbook snapshot
90 / 92¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Brad Lander wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 NY-10 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2026
Identifier
KXNY10D-26-BLAN
Event family
KXNY10D-26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$3K
Outcomes
2
Highest price
Brad Lander 90¢
Current share
76%
Brad Lander
kalshi · KXNY10D-26-BLAN
Dan Goldman
kalshi · KXNY10D-26-DGOL
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.409
Observability
medium
Event type
political
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.