Will Casey Means be confirmed as Surgeon General before May 1, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Casey Means be confirmed as Surgeon General before May 1, 2026?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets near expiry, with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,186 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread.
Analysis
This market displays extreme illiquidity and pricing distortion typical of low-volume prediction markets near expiry, with zero 24-hour volume despite $4,186 open interest and a wide 6¢ spread. The 3¢ price implies an 83,221% annualized yield on a Yes position, an implausibly high figure that reflects the market's thin liquidity rather than genuine probability assessment. With just 14 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this contract carries significant tail risk, and the stagnant 7-day price action suggests the market may be mispriced or abandoned by active traders.
Resolution rules
If Casey Means is the first person confirmed as Surgeon General before May 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXSENATECONFIRM-26MAY01-CMEA yes 100