Will Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 296.0ㅤ?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $47 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 94¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 18¢ spread. The asymmetric implied yields—428% for Yes versus 4797% for No—suggest severe mispricing, with the No side offering dramatically outsized compensation for tail risk, indicating sophisticated traders may view the 94% probability as inflated. With 25 days to expiry and a notable 17¢ price surge over seven days, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yields warrant caution before taking positions.

Resolution rules

If the United States Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: Airline Fares in U.S. City Average for April 2026 is above 296.0ㅤ, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade