Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 146 million total cardholders in Q3 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 98% probability that Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 146 million total cardholders in Q3 2026?. This contract trades at 98¢ on Kalshi, closing June 27, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 65-cent price swing over seven days that pushed the contract from 65¢ to 94¢.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 65-cent price swing over seven days that pushed the contract from 65¢ to 94¢. The implied yield on the "No" side (7969%) is nonsensical and reflects the 0¢ bid floor rather than genuine market conviction, while the 5-cent spread is artificially wide given no actual trading activity. With 72 days to expiry and Costco's cardholder base historically growing steadily (they reported 128 million in Q3 2024), the 146 million threshold appears achievable but the market's complete lack of liquidity makes this unsuitable for real capital deployment.
Resolution rules
If Costco Wholesale Corporation reports above 146 million total cardholders in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-146000000.0 yes 100