Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 147 million total cardholders in Q3 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 97% probability that Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 147 million total cardholders in Q3 2026?. This contract trades at 97¢ on Kalshi, closing June 27, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 78% price surge over seven days, suggesting minimal real conviction behind the move.

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97¢

Bid/Ask 93/99¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $205.75·OI $249.54·Closes Jun 27, 2026·58d remaining

KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-147000000.0

7-day price22 snapshots · 4 regime

93¢92¢ current

Apr 950¢Apr 30

Analysis

13d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 78% price surge over seven days, suggesting minimal real conviction behind the move. The 0¢ current price contradicts the recent rally to 89¢, indicating a significant pricing disconnect or data lag—the spread alone (10¢) represents the entire current quote. The absurdly high implied yield on the "No" side (4110%) is a red flag for an illiquid market with minimal backing, making this unsuitable for serious trading until liquidity materializes closer to the June 27 expiry.

Resolution rules

If Costco Wholesale Corporation reports above 147 million total cardholders in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 54.6%

IY (No) 7217.0%

Adj IY 6668%

CRI 12

RV 98%

VR 1.33

▶ Full indicator table (9)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	54.6%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7217.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	6668%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	98%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.33	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	2.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.08	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/30/2026, 4:08:56 PM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-147000000.0 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →