Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 148 million total cardholders in Q3 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 84% probability that Will Costco Wholesale Corporation report above 148 million total cardholders in Q3 2026?. This contract trades at 84¢ on Kalshi, closing June 27, 2026. The market has surged dramatically from 35¢ to 80¢ over seven days, now pricing in an 88% probability that Costco will exceed 148 million cardholders by Q3 2026, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (127% for Yes vs.
Analysis
The market has surged dramatically from 35¢ to 80¢ over seven days, now pricing in an 88% probability that Costco will exceed 148 million cardholders by Q3 2026, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (127% for Yes vs. 2035% for No) suggest the No side is severely underpriced relative to tail risk. With only $527.51 in open interest and $6.75 in daily volume, liquidity is thin, making the 8¢ spread meaningful and creating potential slippage for larger positions on what appears to be a consensus trade.
Resolution rules
If Costco Wholesale Corporation reports above 148 million total cardholders in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXCOST-26MAYCARDS-148000000.0 yes 100