Croatia · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L
Croatia is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 82¢ bid, 83¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L.
Price history
81¢ current
+3¢Contract brief
If Croatia is one of the teams to qualify from Group L for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Croatia
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
England 95¢
Range
29¢-95¢
Family volume
$2K
Identifier
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L-CRO
Jun 6, 2026, 2:08 AM UTC · 7m ago
Implied probability
Bid
82¢
Ask
83¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$1K
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Family volume
$2K
Orderbook snapshot
82 / 83¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Croatia is one of the teams to qualify from Group L for the Round of 32 in the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
Identifier
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L-CRO
Event family
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$2K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
England 95¢
Current share
68%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.