Will Paraguay qualify from World Cup Group D
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 60% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
60%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$49K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 11, 2026
36 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Qatar qualify from World Cup Group B
Will Qatar qualify from World Cup Group B?: Qatar
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26B-QAT
Cluster 2
Will Iraq qualify from World Cup Group I
Will Iraq qualify from World Cup Group I?: Iraq
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26I-IRQ
Cluster 3
Will Ghana qualify from World Cup Group L
Will Ghana qualify from World Cup Group L?: Ghana
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L-GHA
Cluster 4
Will Saudi Arabia qualify from World Cup Group H
Will Saudi Arabia qualify from World Cup Group H?: Saudi Arabia
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26H-KSA
Cluster 5
Will Uzbekistan qualify from World Cup Group K
Will Uzbekistan qualify from World Cup Group K?: Uzbekistan
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26K-UZB
Cluster 6
Will Ecuador qualify from World Cup Group E
Will Ecuador qualify from World Cup Group E?: Ecuador
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26E-ECU
Cluster 7
Will Norway qualify from World Cup Group I
Will Norway qualify from World Cup Group I?: Norway
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26I-NOR
Cluster 8
Will Uruguay qualify from World Cup Group H
Will Uruguay qualify from World Cup Group H?: Uruguay
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26H-URU
Cluster 9
Will Haiti qualify from World Cup Group C
Will Haiti qualify from World Cup Group C?: Haiti
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26C-HTI
Cluster 10
Will USA qualify from World Cup Group D
Will USA qualify from World Cup Group D?: USA
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26D-USA
Cluster 11
Will France qualify from World Cup Group I
Will France qualify from World Cup Group I?: France
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26I-FRA
Cluster 12
Will Korea Republic qualify from World Cup Group A
Will Korea Republic qualify from World Cup Group A?: Korea Republic
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A-KOR
Cluster 13
Will Ivory Coast qualify from World Cup Group E
Will Ivory Coast qualify from World Cup Group E?: Ivory Coast
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26E-CIV
Cluster 14
Will Panama qualify from World Cup Group L
Will Panama qualify from World Cup Group L?: Panama
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26L-PAN
Cluster 15
Will Senegal qualify from World Cup Group I
Will Senegal qualify from World Cup Group I?: Senegal
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26I-SEN
Cluster 16
Will Austria qualify from World Cup Group J
Will Austria qualify from World Cup Group J?: Austria
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26J-AUT
Cluster 17
Will Mexico qualify from World Cup Group A
Will Mexico qualify from World Cup Group A?: Mexico
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26A-MEX
Cluster 18
Will Germany qualify from World Cup Group E
Will Germany qualify from World Cup Group E?: Germany
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26E-GER
Cluster 19
Will Tunisia qualify from World Cup Group F
Will Tunisia qualify from World Cup Group F?: Tunisia
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26F-TUN
Cluster 20
Will Japan qualify from World Cup Group F
Will Japan qualify from World Cup Group F?: Japan
KXWCGROUPQUAL-26F-JPN
Analysis
This probability reflects market expectations that Paraguay will finish in the top two of their World Cup group and advance to the knockout stage. The 57% assessment suggests Paraguay is viewed as a competitive team with meaningful advancement chances, but facing genuine uncertainty. Key drivers of this probability include Paraguay's recent international form, the strength of competing teams in Group D, and their historical performance in World Cup qualification and tournament play. The upcoming matches within Group D will be the primary catalyst for resolving this uncertainty, as actual results will determine advancement directly. Paraguay's ability to secure points early and their performance against the group favorites will likely shift probabilities substantially.
- ›Paraguay's FIFA ranking and recent competitive record relative to other Group D nations determines baseline qualification likelihood
- ›Head-to-head records and historical performance of Group D opponents provide context for relative team strength
- ›Injuries to key players or coaching changes before tournament play could materially affect Paraguay's capabilities
- ›Paraguay's goal differential and points accumulated in their opening Group D matches will directly indicate advancement probability
- ›Strength of schedule within Group D and whether Paraguay faces group favorites early or late affects their advancement odds
What moved the line
- Jun 3Ivory Coast↓16pp76→60¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Ivory Coast↑11pp60→71¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Ghana↓9pp47→38¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 5Ghana↑9pp38→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 4Japan↓6pp74→68¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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