Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oregon
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oregon is priced at 98¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 0¢ bid, 100¢ ask, 100¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
98¢ current
+42¢Contract brief
If David Brock Smith wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oregon
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$7K
Identifier
KXSENATEORR-26-DSMI
May 24, 2026, 4:35 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
0¢
Ask
100¢
Spread
100¢
Reported volume
$7K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
May 23, 2026
Family volume
$7K
Orderbook snapshot
0 / 100¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If David Brock Smith wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Class II Oregon Senate seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 23, 2026
Identifier
KXSENATEORR-26-DSMI
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$7K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will David Brock Smith be the Republican nominee for the Senate in Oregon 98¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Odds pages
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Prediction Market Index
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Event Probability API
Read 98% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.