Before August 1, 2026 · KXTRUMPOUT27-27
Before August 1, 2026 is priced at 2¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 2¢ bid, 3¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 4 inside KXTRUMPOUT27-27.
Price history
2¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
If Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Before August 1, 2026
Rank
#4 of 4
Leader
Before January 20, 2029 34¢
Range
2¢-34¢
Family volume
$10K
Identifier
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Jun 6, 2026, 6:59 PM UTC · 0m ago
Implied probability
Bid
2¢
Ask
3¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$3K
Family rank
#4 of 4
4 outcomes · KXTRUMPOUT27-27
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Family volume
$10K
Orderbook snapshot
2 / 3¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Donald Trump leaves office before August 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
Identifier
KXTRUMPOUT27-27-26AUG01
Event family
KXTRUMPOUT27-27.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$10K
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Before January 20, 2029 34¢
Current share
29%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.