Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.6% for May 28, 2026
Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.6% for May 28, 2026 is priced at 81¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 81¢ bid, 82¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This page tracks a standalone prediction-market contract.
Price history
81¢ current
+44¢Contract brief
If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 38.6% for May 28, 2026 (as checked at May 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.6% for May 28, 2026
Rank
Standalone
Leader
—
Range
—
Family volume
$48K
Identifier
KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26MAY28
May 28, 2026, 7:08 AM UTC · 26m ago
Implied probability
Bid
81¢
Ask
82¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$14K
Family rank
Standalone
Standalone contract
Closes
May 29, 2026
Family volume
$48K
Orderbook snapshot
81 / 82¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If the VoteHub time-adjusted average for Donald Trump's approval rating is above 38.6% for May 28, 2026 (as checked at May 29, 2026 at 10:00 AM ET), then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
May 29, 2026
Identifier
KXVOTEHUBTRUMPUPDOWN-26MAY28
Event family
This market.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$48K
Outcomes
1
Highest price
Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 38.6% for May 28, 2026 81¢
Current share
100%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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Event Probability API
Read 81% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
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World State API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.