Douglas · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC
Douglas is priced at 11¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 8¢ bid, 74¢ ask, 66¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 16 inside KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC.
Price history
11¢ current
−9¢Contract brief
If a storm named Douglas is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Douglas
Rank
#3 of 16
Leader
Boris 26¢
Range
1¢-26¢
Family volume
$6K
Identifier
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-DOU
Jun 7, 2026, 7:38 AM UTC · 9m ago
Implied probability
Bid
8¢
Ask
74¢
Spread
66¢
24h volume
$574
Family rank
#3 of 16
16 outcomes · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Family volume
$6K
Orderbook snapshot
8 / 74¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If a storm named Douglas is the first storm categorized as a hurricane in the Eastern Pacific between May 15, 2026 and December 01, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
Identifier
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-DOU
Event family
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$6K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Boris 26¢
Current share
9%
Boris
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-BOR
Elida
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-ELI
Douglas
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-DOU
Amanda
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-AMA
Fausto
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-FAU
Karina
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-KAR
Cristina
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-CRI
Winnie
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-WIN
Odalys
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-ODA
Polo
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-POL
Genevieve
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-GEN
Hernan
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-HER
Iselle
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-ISE
Julio
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-JUL
Lowell
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-LOW
Marie
kalshi · KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01EPAC-MAR
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 11% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.