Will Amanda be the first named hurricane in the Eastern Pacific in 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 16% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
16%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$24K
12 contracts
Closes
Dec 1, 2026
131 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Bertha be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Bertha
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-BER
Cluster 2
Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Dolly be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Dolly
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-DOL
Cluster 3
Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Cristobal be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Cristobal
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-CRI
Cluster 4
Will Fausto be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Fausto be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Fausto
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01CPAC-FAU
Cluster 5
Will Gonzalo be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Gonzalo be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Gonzalo
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-GON
Cluster 6
Will Iona be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Iona be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Iona
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01CPAC-ION
Cluster 7
Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Fay be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Fay
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-FAY
Cluster 8
Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Edouard be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Edouard
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-EDO
Cluster 9
Will Nana be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Nana be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Nana
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-NAN
Cluster 10
Will Lala be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Lala be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Lala
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01CPAC-LAL
Cluster 11
Will Rachel be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026
Will Rachel be the first named hurricane in the Central Pacific in 2026?: Rachel
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01CPAC-RAC
Cluster 12
Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026
Will Isaias be the first named hurricane in the Atlantic in 2026?: Isaias
KXFIRSTHURRICANE-26DEC01ATL-ISA
Analysis
This market estimates an 8% probability that Amanda will be the first named hurricane to form in the Eastern Pacific during the 2026 season. Hurricane formation depends on ocean temperatures, atmospheric conditions, and the timing of storm development relative to the Atlantic basin, where storms typically form first in the annual cycle. The low probability reflects that Atlantic hurricanes historically tend to develop before Eastern Pacific ones, as shown by markets pricing Arthur at 30% for the Atlantic. The market will resolve once the National Hurricane Center officially designates the first hurricane in each basin, likely between June and September 2026 when peak season activity occurs.
- ›Atlantic basin development historically precedes Eastern Pacific by several weeks on average, currently priced at roughly 4x the Eastern Pacific probability
- ›Sea surface temperature patterns through July-August 2026 will determine whether conditions favor early Eastern Pacific intensification over Atlantic activity
- ›The official National Hurricane Center hurricane designation is the sole determinant for resolution, requiring wind speeds of 74+ mph and official naming
- ›Kalshi volume concentration ($128 24h on Arthur vs $11-16 on other contracts) indicates significantly higher market interest in Atlantic first-hurricane outcomes
- ›Seasonal timing: if both basins remain relatively quiet through mid-July, Eastern Pacific probability would likely increase as ocean warming progresses
What moved the line
- Jul 17Iona↓88pp95→7¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Lala↓24pp39→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 20Dolly↑19pp10→29¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 17Lala↑17pp15→32¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 22Fausto↑16pp18→34¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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