Douglas Crockett · KXVAPRIMARY-09D26
Douglas Crockett is priced at 17¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 13¢ bid, 21¢ ask, 8¢ spread. This outcome ranks #2 of 4 inside KXVAPRIMARY-09D26.
Price history
17¢ current
+6¢Contract brief
If Douglas Crockett wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 VA-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
Douglas Crockett
Rank
#2 of 4
Leader
Joy Powers 57¢
Range
6¢-57¢
Family volume
$97
Identifier
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26-DCRO
May 24, 2026, 11:38 AM UTC · 3m ago
Implied probability
Bid
13¢
Ask
21¢
Spread
8¢
Reported volume
$388
Family rank
#2 of 4
4 outcomes · KXVAPRIMARY-09D26
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Family volume
$97
Orderbook snapshot
13 / 21¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If Douglas Crockett wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 VA-09 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Nov 3, 2027
Identifier
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26-DCRO
Event family
KXVAPRIMARY-09D26.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$97
Outcomes
4
Highest price
Joy Powers 57¢
Current share
0%
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.