What is the current probability for "Will Dusan Vlahovic leave Juventus before Sep 15, 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 60¢ (60% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on September 15, 2026. 144 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Dusan Vlahovic leave Juventus before Sep 15, 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 242.9% and 263.2% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Dusan Vlahovic leave Juventus before Sep 15, 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Dusan Vlahovic leave Juventus before Sep 15, 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 60% probability that Will Dusan Vlahovic leave Juventus before Sep 15, 2026?. This contract trades at 60¢ on Kalshi, closing September 15, 2026. This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $56 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.

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60¢

Bid/Ask 51/61¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $56·Closes Sep 15, 2026·144d remaining

KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA

7-day price5 snapshots · 4 regime

51¢51¢ current

Apr 81¢Apr 16

Analysis

6d ago

This market shows extremely thin liquidity with only $56 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 60¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The annualized implied yields of 232% (Yes) and 251% (No) are exceptionally high, typical of illiquid niche markets where pricing becomes speculative rather than informative. With 151 days to expiration and a wide 10¢ spread, this contract would be difficult to exit at posted prices, suggesting traders should demand significant edge before committing capital.

Resolution rules

If Dusan Vlahovic transfers out of Juventus before Sep 15, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 242.9%

IY (No) 263.2%

Adj IY 132%

CRI 1

Overround 6.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	242.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	263.2%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	132%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	1	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	6.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.432

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/23/2026, 7:27:42 PM

Observability mediumEvent type sports

Indicators computed 4/23/2026, 7:23:12 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSOCCERTRANSFER-26SUM-DVLA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →