SimpleFunctions
PolymarketDec 31, 2026241 days left

Will EUR/USD hit 1.05 (Low) in 2026?

This contract is priced at 9¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 7¢ bid, 10¢ ask, 3¢ spread.

Implied probability

9¢
$3K volume
$1K liquidity
4% of event volume

Event outcomes

12

Family volume

$63K

Best sibling

↑ 1.20 72¢

Ticker

0x1692c444…5483

Price history

9¢ current

+2¢
25¢50¢75¢100¢
Apr 8, 2026May 2, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

7 / 10¢

Polymarket
3¢ spread
BidSize
100¢3.1K
7¢85
6¢150
5¢117
4¢10
3¢410
2¢1.8K
AskSize
10¢37
11¢25
12¢14
13¢5
14¢188
15¢17
16¢14
17¢11

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle low price is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Dec 31, 2026

Identifier

0x1692c444…5483

Event family

Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$63K

Outcomes

12

Highest price

↑ 1.20 72¢

Current share

4%

Indicators

Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.

IY (Yes)

1529.4%

IY (No)

15.0%

Adj IY

765%

CRI

10

Overround

3.0%

Regime

neutral

Score

0.364

Observability

low

Event type

financial

Full indicator table

1529.4%
15.0%
Adj IY
765%
10
Overround
3.0%

Odds pages

Related prediction questions

Browse odds

Related readings

Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.

Browse library
Blogmarkets

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

Blogcrypto

How Bitcoin & Ethereum Crypto 2026 Price Prediction Markets Are Pricing the Next Leg of the Cycle

Deep-dive for crypto investors and traders into Bitcoin and Ethereum 2026 price prediction markets. Learn how BTC/ETH halving base rates, ETF flows, DeFi/L2 growth, and global regulation shape market-implied odds for 2026 price targets.

Conceptmethodology

Liquidity Migration Across Resolution: Where the Money Goes When a Market Closes

When a flagship prediction market closes, the capital that was in it migrates to next-period siblings, adjacent categories, or off the venue entirely. Three migration patterns and the receiving-market opportunity.

Opinionanalysis

Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026

Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ

Opinioncomparison

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Blogmarkets

Prediction Market Orderbook Analysis: Reading Depth, Spread, and Liquidity

How to read prediction market orderbooks. Binary settlement, spread-as-percentage, depth asymmetry, executable edge calculation, and cross-venue arbitrage analysis.

SimpleFunctions context

Index, screen, query, and monitor.

Open index