↓ 1.05 · Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026
↓ 1.05 is priced at 5¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 4¢ bid, 6¢ ask, 2¢ spread. This outcome ranks #11 of 12 inside Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?.
Price history
5¢ current
−5¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle low price is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Outcome
↓ 1.05
Rank
#11 of 12
Leader
↓ 1.14 70¢
Range
5¢-70¢
Family volume
$68K
Identifier
0x1692c444...5483
Jun 17, 2026, 5:38 PM UTC · 19m ago
Implied probability
Bid
4¢
Ask
6¢
Spread
2¢
24h volume
$16
Family rank
#11 of 12
12 outcomes · Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$68K
Orderbook snapshot
4 / 6¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Investing.com low price (“L”) for any EUR/USD hourly candle for an hour on or before the listed end date (ET) is equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Data for a given candle will be considered finalized once the next candle appears on the specified graph. The last trading day of a given week will be considered finalized once the market closes on that day, typically at 5 PM ET on Friday. This market will resolve as soon as any finalized EUR/USD hourly candle low price is equal to or below the listed price, or once the final hourly candle in the specified period is finalized. A candle starting at 11:00 PM ET on a given date will be considered to be on that date. This market’s resolution will be based solely on information from the “L” figure located at the top of the EUR/USD Streaming Chart on Investing.com for the specified currency pair (e.g., https://www.investing.com/currencies/eur-usd-chart).
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x1692c444…5483
Event family
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$68K
Outcomes
12
Highest price
↓ 1.14 70¢
Current share
6%
↓ 1.14
polymarket · 0xce3db986c20f4bfc4bb65f467f124e269833abee42a7442a8244be7b4ffbbb8a
↑ 1.20
polymarket · 0x126e7616167c979f0cc0418846e66637690735ebf08b9bb1aed7dcb6381e220e
↑ 1.22
polymarket · 0xbfd47c0b5d9a02c5fec747ac91c9615b0d61716c4adeeeb82820d21fc11e1db7
↓ 1.12
polymarket · 0x3c868e9850a59e8f123d363aa8446c05dd267b8946a75abf0d99535474eb3981
↑ 1.24
polymarket · 0xaa15864c0149ea2ae27e0e55f25f146ce35f85573af20ef317df3c97f0f0307e
↑ 1.26
polymarket · 0x9061e5ce791ef28b2f281096dbd65c45024027053f10ca763caee30892ae63da
↓ 1.10
polymarket · 0xf2aab71f624e1c647f4bf99c1288b1d480a01e417dc08ffd30ec843099c7dddc
↑ 1.30
polymarket · 0x3f9d48f00845c826ea30f03150513f9ecc4741934dc880f982402083ec0e287e
↑ 1.35
polymarket · 0xa3f6c3f05fc4ffded5ccf889d46456fd5de1d7a7317dac3900ad616c1deecfc6
↑ 1.40
polymarket · 0x78cd5d98ba52ab7471e607a98b496cf1d64d21f32e42aa8cced5083ec9d78a1f
↓ 1.05
polymarket · 0x1692c444711c77ceac04f8812943a8b02ae2110fe7428c38c7f9afd9302c5483
↓ 1.00
polymarket · 0x191b7db868425a5af73c37fe2aa505290f6de53eca4092f7dbf624649e15d81e
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.364
Observability
low
Event type
financial
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Market Screener
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Event Probability API
Read 5% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.