Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?
Leader sits at 72% across 12 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
↑ 1.20
Outcomes
12
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
↓ 1.14
Spread
12pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
241 days
Venue
Polymarket
12 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.40
0x78cd5d…8a1f
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓ 1.00
0x191b7d…d81e
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓ 1.05
0x1692c4…5483
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓ 1.10
0xf2aab7…dddc
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓ 1.12
0x3c868e…3981
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↓ 1.14
0xce3db9…bb8a
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.20
0x126e76…220e
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.22
0xbfd47c…1db7
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.24
0xaa1586…307e
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.26
0x9061e5…63da
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.30
0x3f9d48…287e
Will EUR/USD hit __ in 2026?: ↑ 1.35
0xa3f6c3…cfc6
Analysis
This market estimates a 73% chance that EUR/USD will fall below 1.12 by year-end 2026, reflecting trader expectations of euro weakness relative to the dollar. The probability reflects divergent monetary policy expectations: the European Central Bank maintaining lower rates longer than the U.S. Federal Reserve typically supports dollar strength, while eurozone economic growth concerns and geopolitical risks on Europe's periphery add downward pressure on the euro. Key drivers include the outcome of the next ECB rate decision cycle (typically June meetings), U.S. inflation data that influences Fed policy direction, and any escalation in regional tensions affecting risk sentiment. The contract will resolve when EUR/USD either crosses below 1.12 or the year ends, with most uncertainty clearing as economic data accumulates through summer 2026.
- ›ECB rate differential relative to the Fed: the wider the gap favoring higher U.S. rates, the more downward pressure on EUR/USD
- ›Eurozone GDP growth and inflation readings in Q2-Q3 2026: weaker data supports euro depreciation toward 1.12
- ›U.S. employment and inflation prints: stronger readings keep Fed rates elevated, supporting dollar strength
- ›Geopolitical risk events in Europe (trade tensions, political instability): typically weaken the euro relative to safe-haven assets
- ›Technical support levels and volume patterns at 1.12: determines whether market participants see this level as sustainable or temporary
What moved the line
- Apr 28↓ 1.10↑18pp22→40¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↓ 1.05↑16pp8→24¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 29↓ 1.05↓15pp24→9¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 1.40↑14pp8→22¢ · Polymarket
- Apr 28↑ 1.30↑13pp20→33¢ · Polymarket
Recently closed in general
- Canterbury Rams vs Franklin Bulls WinnerSouthland Sharkslast 65% · 0d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 9 min ago.