SimpleFunctions

Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.4 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?

Prediction markets currently give a 50% probability that Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.4 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?. This contract trades at 50¢ on Kalshi, closing July 23, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $1 open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.

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50¢
Bid/Ask 45/50¢·Spread 5¢·Vol $0·OI $126.83·Closes Jul 23, 2026·84d remaining
KXFDX-26JUNADV-17400000.0
7-day price5 snapshots · 2 regime
45¢45¢ current
Apr 2343¢Apr 29

Analysis

11d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 in 24-hour volume and $1 open interest, making the 42¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 528.8% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high and likely reflects the thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, with a 9¢ spread indicating minimal depth. With 95 days to expiration and a neutral regime, this contract appears to be a niche position with minimal trading activity rather than an efficiently priced prediction.

Resolution rules

If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17400000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 530.1%
IY (No) 354.8%
Adj IY 265%
CRI 1
Overround 5.4%
▶ Full indicator table (5)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)530.1%
IY (No)354.8%
Adj IY265%
CRI1
Overround5.4%

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.568
Spread
5¢
Computed
4/30/2026, 4:09:48 PM
Observability highEvent type data_release
Indicators computed 4/30/2026, 4:08:09 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXFDX-26JUNADV-17400000.0 yes 100

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