Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.6 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 30% probability that Will FedEx Corporation report Above 17.6 million avg daily package volume in Q4 2026?. This contract trades at 30¢ on Kalshi, closing July 23, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 1539% implied yield on the Yes side.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 1539% implied yield on the Yes side. The 10¢ spread and neutral regime suggest minimal market conviction, while the 95-day timeframe provides adequate runway for price discovery if liquidity materializes. The Cliff Risk Index of 4 indicates moderate uncertainty around FedEx's actual Q4 2026 package volumes relative to the 17.6 million daily threshold, warranting caution before treating this as a genuine arbitrage opportunity.
Resolution rules
If FedEx Corporation reports Above 17600000.0 avg daily package volume in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXFDX-26JUNADV-17600000.0 yes 100