What is the current probability for "Will Florida St. qualify for the College Baseball World Series?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 55¢ (55% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 26, 2026. 62 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Florida St. qualify for the College Baseball World Series?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3077.1% and 111.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Florida St. qualify for the College Baseball World Series?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Florida St. qualify for the College Baseball World Series?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 55% probability that Will Florida St. qualify for the College Baseball World Series?. This contract trades at 55¢ on Kalshi, closing June 26, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 17,407.6% implied yield on Yes contracts.

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55¢mid

Bid/Ask 17/93¢·Spread 76¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 26, 2026·62d remaining

KXNCAABBPLAYOFFS-26-FSU

7-day price17 snapshots · 3 regime

17¢16¢ current

Apr 172¢Apr 25

Analysis

5d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable despite the astronomical 17,407.6% implied yield on Yes contracts. The 93¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary market, reflecting the complete lack of trading activity and price discovery. With 68 days until expiry and Florida State historically a strong baseball program, the zero price likely reflects no recent trading rather than genuine market consensus that qualification is impossible.

Resolution rules

If Florida St. qualifies for the College Baseball World Series in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3077.1%

IY (No) 111.6%

Adj IY 3077%

CRI 5

RV 819%

VR 1.52

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3077.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	111.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	3077%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	819%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	1.52	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	1.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	4.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

76¢

Computed

4/25/2026, 7:28:17 AM

Indicators computed 4/25/2026, 7:23:44 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNCAABBPLAYOFFS-26-FSU yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →