France · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR
France is priced at 25¢ on Kalshi. Current book: 19¢ bid, 25¢ ask, 6¢ spread. This outcome ranks #1 of 11 inside KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR.
Price history
25¢ current
+7¢Contract brief
If France is the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Outcome
France
Rank
#1 of 11
Leader
France 19¢
Range
1¢-19¢
Family volume
$122
Identifier
KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-FRA
May 28, 2026, 5:38 AM UTC · 30m ago
Implied probability
Bid
19¢
Ask
25¢
Spread
6¢
24h volume
$117
Family rank
#1 of 11
11 outcomes · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Family volume
$122
Orderbook snapshot
19 / 25¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
If France is the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Venue
Kalshi
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
Identifier
KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-FRA
Event family
KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$122
Outcomes
11
Highest price
France 19¢
Current share
96%
France
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-FRA
Spain
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-ESP
England
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-ENG
Portugal
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-POR
Germany
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-GER
Netherlands
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-NED
Belgium
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-BEL
Norway
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-NOR
Turkiye
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-TUR
Croatia
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-CRO
Austria
kalshi · KXWCFURTHESTADVANCING-26EUR-AUT
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
taker
Score
0.636
Observability
direct
Event type
sports
Full indicator table
Odds pages
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.