Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
20 contracts
Closes
Aug 2, 2026
67 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
20 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Japan be the furthest advancing Asian/Oceanic nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 2
Will Ecuador be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 3
Will Senegal be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 4
Will Colombia be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 5
Will France be the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 6
Will Morocco be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 7
Will Argentina be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 8
Will Egypt be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 9
Will Spain be the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 10
Will England be the furthest advancing European nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 11
Will Paraguay be the furthest advancing South American nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 12
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 13
Will Congo DR be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 14
Will Cape Verde be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 15
Will Algeria be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 16
Will Ghana be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 17
Will South Africa be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 18
Will Tunisia be the furthest advancing African nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 19
Will Australia be the furthest advancing Asian/Oceanic nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Cluster 20
Will IR Iran be the furthest advancing Asian/Oceanic nation in the 2026 Men's FIFA World Cup
Analysis
This probability reflects the odds that Ivory Coast advances further than any other African nation at the 2026 FIFA World Cup. The 19% assessment suggests Ivory Coast is competitive but not favored—Morocco is priced substantially higher at 40%, indicating market participants view Morocco's squad strength and recent tournament experience as advantages. Ivory Coast's position depends on group composition, injury status of key players, and performance against higher-seeded opponents. The tournament begins in June 2026, at which point group stage matchups and early results will quickly resolve much of the uncertainty around which African side performs best.
- ›Ivory Coast's group assignment and opponent quality, which will be determined at the official 2026 World Cup draw
- ›Comparative squad depth and form of competing African nations, particularly Morocco, Senegal, and Cameroon heading into the tournament
- ›Injury or availability status of Ivory Coast's key players during the June 2026 tournament window
- ›Historical performance data: Ivory Coast reached the Round of 16 in 2014 but has not advanced past that stage since; Morocco reached the semifinals in 2022
- ›Tournament bracket dynamics and whether Ivory Coast faces easier or harder paths to advancing further than rival African nations
What moved the line
- May 24Argentina↑19pp20→39¢ · Kalshi
- May 22Argentina↓15pp35→20¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Japan↑10pp23→33¢ · Kalshi
- May 21Egypt↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 23Senegal↑4pp13→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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