What is the current probability for "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 3¢ (3% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on June 30, 2026. 57 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 20575.5% and 19.7% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

PolymarketJun 30, 202657 days left

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

This contract is priced at 3¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 3¢ bid, 4¢ ask, 1¢ spread.

Open on Polymarket JSON + orderbook Enter terminal

Implied probability

3¢

$865K volume

$44K liquidity

0% of event volume

Event outcomes

Family volume

$186.8M

Best sibling

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April 0¢

Ticker

0x0c38dd93…6e4a

Price history

3¢ current

−1¢

Apr 8, 2026May 3, 2026

Orderbook snapshot

3 / 4¢

Polymarket

1¢ spread

BidSize

3¢107

3¢100

3¢2.1K

3¢2.8K

3¢5.0K

3¢16K

3¢2.6K

AskSize

4¢495

4¢205

4¢3.0K

4¢373

4¢4.8K

4¢1.9K

5¢200

5¢100

Contract terms

Resolution, venue, and identifiers.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if France, the United Kingdom, or Germany initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by French, United Kingdom, or German military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by a French, United Kingdom, or German missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by French, United Kingdom, or German ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Venue

Polymarket

Closes

Jun 30, 2026

Identifier

0x0c38dd93…6e4a

Event family

Iran / Hormuz crisis.

This view keeps the individual contract next to its sibling outcomes. For long-tail search traffic, this is the useful context: where the current price sits inside the event, how much volume exists around the family, and which outcomes have actual depth.

Total volume

$186.8M

Outcomes