Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 3% across 1 Polymarket contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
—
not bound
Polymarket
3%
1 contract
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−39pp
36h ago
24h volume
$5K
1 contracts
Closes
Jun 30, 2026
57 days
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
0x0c38dd…6e4a
Analysis
This measures the likelihood that France, the UK, or Germany conducts a military strike against Iran within the next two months. The 42% aggregate probability reflects significant disagreement between venues: Kalshi traders price it at 51% while Polymarket prices it at 19%, a 32-percentage-point gap suggesting uncertainty about escalation triggers. Current pricing appears influenced by regional tensions and nuclear negotiations, though the low trading volume on this specific contract ($14k in 24 hours) indicates limited market confidence in pricing. The main drivers are Iranian nuclear program developments, regional proxy activity, and diplomatic negotiation status. The June 30 deadline means resolution depends on events over the next two months, with any major escalation in Yemen, Iraq, or direct Iranian provocations potentially shifting probabilities sharply. Geopolitical risk remains elevated but concentrated among a small subset of traders.
- ›Kalshi prices this 32 percentage points higher than Polymarket (51% vs 19%), suggesting fundamental disagreement on escalation likelihood that may reflect different trader composition or information access
- ›Related Iranian regime-change contract trades at only 7¢ on Polymarket, indicating low market confidence in near-term governmental collapse despite the strike contract being considerably higher-priced
- ›Very low volume on the strike contract itself ($14k/24h) compared to broader Iran theme contracts, suggesting limited conviction and potential pricing inefficiency from thin liquidity
- ›No major scheduled Iranian nuclear deadline or Western ultimatum currently visible in May 2026, meaning strike probability depends on unexpected escalation rather than anticipated diplomatic event
- ›Timing window is only two months, which constrains how much ordinary negotiation or diplomatic development can resolve uncertainty versus requiring acute security incident
What moved the line
- Apr 28Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?↑23pp4→27¢ · Polymarket
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 1 contract (3% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
Thicker comparable contracts
In iran
Related reading
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The US military campaign against Iran continues with near-zero odds of operations ending in April (2¢) and only 33¢ for May. The Iranian regime itself is priced at 8¢ to fall by June 30, and Kharg Island seizure is at 12¢ for May 31. The Hormuz disruption is the key transmission mechanism to global markets.
Strait of Hormuz Normalization Reprices: May Contract Jumps +5¢ as Iran Tensions Evolve
The Strait of Hormuz traffic normalization by end of May jumped +5¢ to 39¢ while the April contract expired at 0¢. This repricing suggests traders see meaningful probability of a US-Iran deal or de-escalation within the next month, with direct oil market implications.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 5 min ago.