↓ $4.20 · Will gas hit __ by end of May
↓ $4.20 is priced at 13¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 11¢ bid, 14¢ ask, 3¢ spread. This outcome ranks #3 of 9 inside Will gas hit __ by end of May?.
Price history
13¢ current
+9¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Outcome
↓ $4.20
Rank
#3 of 9
Leader
↑ $4.60 30¢
Range
1¢-30¢
Family volume
$83K
Identifier
0xd6c71d82...feaa
May 27, 2026, 5:08 AM UTC · 2m ago
Implied probability
Bid
11¢
Ask
14¢
Spread
3¢
24h volume
$579
Family rank
#3 of 9
9 outcomes · Will gas hit __ by end of May?
Closes
May 31, 2026
Family volume
$83K
Orderbook snapshot
11 / 14¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to "Yes" if on any day between market creation and May 31, 2026, the average US regular gas price is equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Only the first two decimal digits of the reported price will be considered (e.g., if the price is reported as $3.257, this market will use $3.25 as the price). The resolution source for this market will be information from the American Automobile Association (AAA), presently found here: https://gasprices.aaa.com/. Specifically, the cell under "Regular" and for the row "Current Avg".
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
May 31, 2026
Identifier
0xd6c71d82…feaa
Event family
Will gas hit __ by end of May.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$83K
Outcomes
9
Highest price
↑ $4.60 30¢
Current share
3%
↑ $4.60
polymarket · 0x228699193173c0ca040592790a8c3adf1106ed5ab542d3397afb119c0eb2d9c2
↓ $4.25
polymarket · 0x8a0d5d7cfe1751362abf07b0d4caa5dcf5b817fad7f7b9ff4de9f395cecdab7c
↓ $4.20
polymarket · 0xd6c71d8228354234abc3d0ce74d5e6eca5a91d8432a76a9de156fc7e01c1feaa
↑ $4.70
polymarket · 0x7f985cdf3f8fab6368ad8eb1b9a80d87efff1ad791339c46ce9580e41fafbe3a
↓ $4.10
polymarket · 0xea440e862a3bfeda0cb0c6d35a38d2501e1a3d2aa72f81dd7a5e286f82eab21b
↓ $3.50
polymarket · 0xc4f93e01875fa0d7402ebd37736cf7fa0805ec5c9529cff566967117d99f097f
↓ $3.75
polymarket · 0x75f67154d1230a2528e37a6b8f595760bcd2b5e530282dcd9c51b245a5d25b1b
↓ $4.00
polymarket · 0x4c7a4c86c15aec7cebc8748152a6cd3161c052102f083d62b089aaf793bf5667
↑ $5.00
polymarket · 0x7c1fba11dac52d10d6a37470188e949a3f7502f8ee84232f525ec5d29a7a8790
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Full indicator table
Odds pages
Related prediction questions
Related readings
Matched from SimpleFunctions blog, opinions, technical guides, concepts, and learn pages.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?
In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.
Information Finance Has Arrived: A Material Map of Prediction Markets in Q2 2026
Combined Kalshi + Polymarket volume hit $66B in just four months of 2026 — already greater than the entire 2025 industry total. Bernstein projects $1T by 2030. Two venues hold 95% of US share. The distribution layer fragmented across nine retail surfaces. AI agents are 30% of Polymarket wallet activ
Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)
Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.
New Market Price Formation: The First 24 Hours of a Listed Contract
When a binary contract first lists, the price moves through four phases: maker seeding, discovery flow, tentative consensus, stable pricing. Trading rules and the maker opportunity in phases 1 and 2.
Implied Yield vs Raw Probability: Why Bond-Adjacent Prediction Markets Need a Different Lens
Why fixed-income-adjacent prediction-market contracts need to be priced in implied yield, not raw probability, with two real Kalshi Fed-decision contracts as a case study.
Kalshi vs Polymarket: A Developer's Comparison of APIs, Orderbooks, and Liquidity
Data-driven comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket APIs, orderbooks, rate limits, and liquidity. Code examples for building on both prediction markets.
SimpleFunctions context
Index, screen, query, and monitor.
Prediction Market Index
Market-wide volatility, geo risk, breadth, and activity around this contract.
Market Screener
Filter adjacent contracts by volume, expiry, IY, CRI, venue, and theme.
Event Probability API
Read 13% as a structured event probability object for agents and apps.
Realtime Data API
Prices, orderbooks, movement, heat, and liquidity indicators across venues.
World State API
Compact market-aware context packets for agent sessions and scheduled refresh.
Hedging Workflows
Map a thesis or exposure to candidate event markets and monitoring paths.
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.